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Airline Online Distribution Focus North America 2009
published: June 2009
author: EyeforTravel Research
pages: 98
charts: 141
document size: 23.3 MB
price: From EUR 545
This report focuses on the Airline sector of the North American travel market and is based on an in-depth statistical analysis that investigates purchasing channels of the US and Canadian travel consumers. Historical, current and forecasted data has been developed and detailed trends can be seen from 2002 and forward to 2012.
Readers will have access to figures showing online vs. offline distribution trends in these travel markets and the airline sector specifically. They will also have a clear understanding about the role of online intermediaries for airline ticket sales over the past few years and how this is expected to change over time. This is the direct vs. indirect online distribution data. In addition, readers will also have access to the exclusive data that identifies diverse distribution patterns within the North American travel markets and therefore be able to identify the implications of differing consumer behaviour between purchasing domestic and international airline products.
As we believe it is important to put it all into perspective, included in the report is also a BONUS statistical overview analysis of the North American travel market in its entirety. This will help companies realise how the airline sector is performing within the gross and online travel markets as a whole and provide insight into how the sector is operating comparatively in terms of distribution trends now and in the future.
For those who require detailed data for each of the sectors (airline, hotel, car rental, cruise, package tour, rail, bus, online travel agent) should purchase the FULL North American Online Travel Report 2009.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis
North American Travel Market Overview
US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis
US Travel Market Analysis
Canadian Travel Market Analysis
Chapter 2: North American Airline Sector Analysis
North American Airline Sector Overview
US Airline Market Analysis
Canadian Airline Market Analysis
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.2: North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.3: North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.4: North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.5: North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.6: Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.7: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.8: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.9: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.10: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.11: North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F
Figure 1.12: Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.13: Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.14: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008
Figure 1.15: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.16: North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F
Figure 1.17: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.18: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.19: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012
Figure 1.20: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.21: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.22: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.23: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.24: Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.25: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008
Figure 1.26: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.27: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.28: Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.29: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.30: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008
Figure 1.31: Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.32: North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.33: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.34: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.35: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.36: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.37: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.38: North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.39: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.40: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.41: US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.42: US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.43: Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.44: Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.45: Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.46: North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.47: Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.48: North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.49: Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.50: Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.51: Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.52: Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.53: Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.54: Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.55: US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.56: Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.57: Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.58: Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.59: US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.60: Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.61: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.62: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.63: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.64: US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.65: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.66: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.67: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.68: US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.69: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.70: Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.71: Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.72: Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.73: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.74: Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.75: Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.76: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.77: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.78: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.79: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.80: Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.81: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 1.82: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008
Figure 1.83: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.84: Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F
Figure 1.85: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.1: Value of the North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.2: Online Penetration of the North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.3: Value of North American Airline Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.4: North American Online Airline Market as % of Total North American Online Travel Market
Figure 2.5: Value of the North American Online Airline Market Value, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.6: North American Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.7: Value of North American Gross Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.8: North American Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.9: Value of North American Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.10: North American Online Airline Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.11: Value of North American Online Airline Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.12: Online Penetration Comparison of North American, US and Canadian Airline Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.13: US Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.14: Value of US Domestic Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.15: US Domestic Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.16: Value of the US Domestic Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.17: Online Penetration of the US Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.18: Value of the US Airline Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.19: Online Penetration Comparison of Total, Domestic and Outbound US Airline Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.20: Online Penetration of the US Domestic Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.21: Online Penetration of the US Outbound Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.22: Value of the US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.23: Value of the US Domestic Airline Market Value - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.24: US Domestic Online Airline Market - Online Penetration of Traditional Airlines and Low Cost Carriers, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.25: US Domestic Online Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.26: US Domestic Online Airline Market Value - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers, 2002-2012
Figure 2.27: Value of the US Outbound Airline Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.28: US Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.29: Value of the US Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.30: US Domestic Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.31: US Outbound Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.32: US Outbound Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.33: Value of the Canadian Gross Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.34: Canadian Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.35: Value of the Canadian Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.36: Canadian Domestic Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.37: Value of the Canadian Domestic Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.38: Online Penetration of the Canadian Airline Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.39: Value of the Canadian Airline Market - Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.40: Airline Sector Contribution to Canadian Total, Domestic and Outbound Online Travel Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.41: Online Penetration Comparison of Total, Domestic and Outbound Canadian Online Airline Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.42: Online Penetration of the Domestic Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.43: Online Penetration of the Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.44: Value of the Canadian Domestic Airline Market - Online vs. offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.45: Value of the Canadian Outbound Airline Market - Online vs. offline, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.46: Canadian Online Airline Market Value - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.47: Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.48: Canadian Domestic Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.49: Online Penetration of Traditional Airline & Low Cost Carrier Canadian Domestic Airline Markets, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.50: Value of Canadian Domestic Online Airline Market - Traditional Airlines vs. Low Cost Carriers, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.51: Canadian Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution %, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.52: Value of Canadian Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.53: Canadian Domestic Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002- 2012F
Figure 2.54: Canadian Outbound Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F
Figure 2.55: Value of Canadian Domestic Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Figure 2.56: Value of Canadian Outbound Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F
Methodology
Geographic coverage
“North America” relates to the US and Canada. Travel expenditure by foreign travellers i.e. consumers who reside outside the North American region or the specific country market review (US or Canada) is not part are the market figures. The data relates to the expenditure of the resident consumers.
Total (gross) travel market
The Total travel market is defined as the total expenditure by North American residents while travelling within the North American region or the specific country market review (US or Canada) on travel products including non-package products (air, rail, car, hotel, bus, cruise) and package (refers to traditional packages) products plus expenditure on travel outside the North American region or the specific country market review (US or Canada). It represents expenditure in both B2C (leisure/unmanaged business travellers) and B2B (managed business travel) segments.
The total Travel market is the sum of expenditure on products from the following travel sectors:
Airline
Rail
Bus
Hotel
Cruise
Package
Car Rental
The Package sector represents traditional package tours (pre arranged packages) rather than ‘dynamic packages’ (a combination of individual products compiled by the consumer and included in the individual sectors).
The Total travel market is categorised into domestic and outbound travel markets.
Domestic travel market: expenditure by North American resident consumers within their country of residence.
Outbound travel market: spending by North American residents while travelling abroad (outside of their country of residence).
Total online travel market
The online travel market is defined as the value of online transactions by leisure and unmanaged business travellers for Travel within the North American region or the specific country market review (US or Canada) plus outside the North American region or the specific country market review (US or Canada). It represents online spending in B2C segment only. Computation of online markets for each sector is based on the online penetration of the gross market for that sector.
The Distribution within the online travel market is divided into Direct and Indirect distribution.
Indirect: Expenditure via an Online Travel Agent (OTA)
Direct: Expenditure direct to a supplier website
Online travel market in different travel sectors
The value of the online travel market (B2C sales) in the individual travel sectors represents online transactions by leisure and unmanaged business travellers. Online penetration rates have been applied to gross bookings (package + non-package) in the respective sectors to derive the total value of online bookings. The value of online bookings is further divided in to supplier websites (direct channel) and third-party OTA websites (indirect channel).
Travel sectors
It should be noted that the value of each Travel sector refers to expenditure by the resident consumers on the Travel products. This means that market valuations do not only refer to the productivity of the suppliers of the region but will also include expenditure by consumers on products sold by non-North American suppliers. We have therefore excluded any inbound consumer contributions to the markets and included the value of outbound travel expenditure with suppliers and intermediaries outside the region as well.
Notes:
Airline sector: The total Airline market includes travel by traditional airlines (flagship) and Low Cost Carriers (LCCs). International routes calculated include expenditure with non-North American carriers.
Bus sector: The Bus sector includes long haul Bus travel of two key segments: intercity schedules services and charter services.
Rail sector: Value of the rail sector considers expenditure by North American residents on intercity rail products.
Package sector: This includes both group and independent Package tour products. They include pre-packaged trip including transport and accommodation.
Research methodology
The EyeforTravel model calculates Travel markets using a demand side, bottom up approach. The methodology has been used to ensure accuracy for both domestic and outbound segments which enables the inclusion of expenditure by the relevant residents in the figures only i.e. foreign travel spend is not counted and therefore will not lead to global double counting. A combination of multiple secondary official data sources relevant to the travel market as a whole and specific sectors combined with primary research findings have been used to complete the model and reach final market valuations. Figures were also validated using supply side data from both primary and secondary research. Forecasts have been based on econometric modelling.
Key differentiators
• EyeforTravel considers travel markets to be the value of expenditure by residents on travel and accommodation while travelling domestically or abroad.
EyeforTravel values the travel market from demand side. The demand side approach ensures that the value of travel market is complete in nature and does not omit travel expenditure with foreign suppliers, especially during an outbound trip i.e. represents the total value of that market under review. This methodology is favoured by EyeforTravel over the supply-side approach because the calculations do not limit the market values to the domestic suppliers only.
• The domestic and outbound travel markets are divided into package and non-package segments, which encompass various travel sectors including air, rail, car rental, cruise, bus and also accommodation. All individual travel sector data excludes the expenditure that is part of a Package, which is then represented within the Package sector data i.e. the data will not be double counted.
• EyeforTravel include historical and forecasted market size estimations for the long-haul bus travel markets for the US and Canada, a sector not often included by all travel research firms.
• Online market represents B2C bookings only
EyeforTravel defines the online market as the value of online payments made by leisure / unmanaged business travellers either via supplier websites or via third-party websites. This represents the value of the B2C (business-to-consumer) online travel market. EyeforTravel represents the value of the online market as a % of non-package segment bookings which indicates B2C online penetration on non-package segment values.
• Application of econometric and multiplicative models for forecasting
Econometric models have been constructed to forecast domestic, inbound and outbound tourist volumes. The results of these models were back tested with suitable forecast accuracy, with a mean absolute error of less than 1%. The tourist volumes form the key input for the multiplicative market sizing model that computes travel market size using the sum of the parts approach. The combined scenario based forecasting takes in to account the ongoing economic crisis in North America and also consider other upcoming events in the region.
• Inputs from extensive primary research
Extensive primary research was conducted with industry participants and experts to fill the data gaps and to validate forecast assumptions and results. We conducted over 80 interviews with different travel industry participants and experts in the relevant travel segments in the US and Canada.
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